ROCK AND A HARD PLACE PREDICTION:

Punch will go free of tie soon and offer all tenants a flat increase on their rent - no negotiations mind, it will be a take it or leave it increase offer - against continuing to supply the outlet with what by comparison with what they are paying now looks like 'generous' discounts (I'd guess around £70 - £90 a barrel against the £0 to £45 they pass on now). There will be a contractual supply agreement obligation for the tenant to continue to buy their goods through Punch but it will be called something benign rather than a tie.

This will make massive industry headlines, Punch will be hailed as a market leader and a benevolent supporter of its pub partners, giving them the chance to be truly entrepreneurial and so on. When it happens I recommend agreeing to nothing and sticking it out until they go bust and push, with everyone else that's still clinging on in this industry, to get your freehold at a sensible price from the administrators.

This is THE ONLY WAY pubcos can even try to survive. They are knackered financially, cannot give concessions because they cannot service their debt without cash coming in from their estates.