Monday, February 25, 2008

@50 eusebiovic. Spot on. And they (the pubcos) are putting the screws on so much now that pubs are closing all over the place. It really doesn’t matter - there are too many pubs - everyone knows that - and there’s been a 5 - 15% decline in the majority’s income since the smoking ban so when a third of the remaining pubs have closed down what does that mean? There’s capacity for the remaining pubs to see their income rise again - supply and demand is being driven by pubcos who are now property companies not suppliers of goods. And when their estates are reduced bu a third what do they have then? A whole lot of bricks and mortar they can;t sell on as pub businesses? NO. They have a whole load of property that’s no longer usable as public houses because the climates, social economic and cultural have changed but there’s an enormous demand for residential accommodation. Planning rules relax for change of use of public houses to domestic and - HEY PRESTO! The value of your estate just shot up by two to four times current book value.

Any individual pub businesses that survive the onslaught of the insatiable megaliathon pubcos will simply be leaner and fitter as far as the pubcos are concerned. It’s win win win win all round with the principle winners being the ones who are controlling the market at every level - wholesale, retail, bricks and mortar - the pubcos.

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