Monday, March 09, 2009

Morning Advertiser

June, £250 seems about spot on because the same figures have been arrived at independently by different people taking different routes to working out what pubcos profits are.

1) by analysing figures published in pubco annual accounts and comparing with brewers'

2) by working from figures released in statements made by senior directors of pubcos about losses to them from buying out

3) by comparing price differentials between the tied and free of tie sector

4) by looking at compensatory fines levied against volume imposed by pubcos on licensees accused of out of tie purchases

You could say that £250 per barrel is a hypothesis based on observation of what is known; waiting for final proof, or otherwise, rather as black holes were a prediction as long ago as the 18th Century. From wikipedia:

"a black hole is a region of space in which the gravitational field is so powerful that nothing can escape its pull... The term derives from the fact that absorption of visible light renders the hole's interior invisible, and indistinguishable from the black space around..."

Come to think of it a black hole's rather a good analogy for pubcos' influence on profit in the pub industry - they've been sucking it ALL up quietly and efficiently no one's really spotted it until too late and it's all imploding in a crushing mess.

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