Monday, February 25, 2008

Steve Corbett:

RE: Smoke ban not closing pubs

Share price change over a 12month period:

Punch -51%

Enterprise Inns - 38%

Fullers -24%

Green King -40%

Marstons -47%

Mitchells & Butler -49%

Rank -56%

Regent Inns -85%

Maybe Mr Johnson won the Golden ticket and now lives in the Willy Wonka chocolate factory

and what about us Mr Johnson, the real folk on the shop floor?? My pubs down about 14% from the same period last year. Who's going to keep the wolves away from my door? Because I can tell you for definite it aint gonna be my landlord....

25 Feb 2008 17:53
Stephen Corbett
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25 Feb 2008 18:04
Graham Allman
1041 Post(s)
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RE: Smoke ban not closing pubs

Stephen , i partially agree with what you say , lets say , hear what you say. However ,the stock of pubs has been in decline for over a decade or more along with beer volumes , 3% down one year , 6% the next and so on. The demographics of the country and its social make up is continually on the move and nothing is forever im afraid. The actions of this government is accelerating the closures , most of which are inevitable , but not over such a short period of time , this does not allow the reduction in pubs to be managed with natural waistage by retiring publicans etc.

The comment about who is buying the shares should be seen as a posative, why would this happen if the future of the company or the industry was in doubt ?

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Graham can’t disagree that beer has been in decline over the past decade but the pub has shifted its profile to accommodate, more food led outlets, better understanding of wine etc. The pub has generally moved along with the times. But if we agree that there has been a decline in stock of pubs, beer volumes etc. Can you therefore explain the unparalleled expansion of the pubcos? Conception to FTSE 100 in less than 8 years for both of the big boys. The top performers in the FTSE have consistently been pubcos. For most of this decade they have been top of the league for shareholders value with returns of well over 400%. In 2006 the returns to shareholders were 482%, the highest of any sector. Oh! I almost forgot about Ted’s pay packet last year.

So with the decline in the pub industry and breweries closing down hand over fist, can someone please explain to me ‘how the hell’ the pubcos have in a very short period of time muscled their way to the top and become billion dollar organisations?

Don’t tell me I already know the answer…..

Look at the boarded up pub at the end of your street.....

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